Some really interesting thoughts and debate here.
Just a few comments to throw in:
BEV's start paying standard rate VED from April 2025 and those new from then the Luxury Car Tax too. Given fiscal drag on the £40k purchase price soon most cars will pay that too given time an inflation, so the loss of revenue from VED is already being stemmed, unless there becomes an overall decline in cars on the road, which doesn't seem likely short or mid-term
Clearly though fuel duty charged on ICE's is long term a dead duck for revenue generation, unless one argues BEV's won't replace ICE's, so an alternative has to be found.
There's really only 2 alternatives increase VED further, which many argue is not fit for purpose or charge per mile.
As the object is to raise revenue but spout politically about green credentials, fairness to low mileage users, etc. I'm sure the first iteration of pay per mile will be crude based upon owner declared annual mileage, MOT tests, other declarations to insurers, VED taxation applications, etc. but will over time become much smoother with no doubt cars sending registration based mileage direct to HMRC.
As a separate point I don't agree to the 4th power rule being very relevant to cars. It's an very old 1950's concept designed to guide on road construction and is challenged anyway. Sure a BEV's currently weight c25% more than an ICE, but not for long as tech changes. The industry expects them to be lighter than ICE's soon, although I believe in general all cars continue to become heavier.
Assuming though say 1.6 tonnes Vs 2 tonnes spread across 2 axles it represents only a number of 0.4 Vs 1 (so 2.5 times the axle impact/damage) whereas a 30 ton truck with 3 axles comes out at 10,000 so that's where the real damage, is not from lots of heavier cars. If you doubt it look at the ruts on the inner lane of any older dualled or greater laned road. They are clearly HGV width and pattern tracks so weight based taxation feels like a non-starter outside of commercial vehicles and in any even thee is no connection as posted already between vehicle taxations and road funding.
So for me, bring on per mile charging as a fairer method. Personally I do few miles in the F type so at a few pence per mile I'd be better off than VED and will see no VED benefit from a BEV from next year, but happy to pay per mile.
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2014 MY 3.0 V6S Roadster
Subtle enhancements to create the car I wanted from SVR nose cone, 400 series side skirts & customised 'design' rear bumper, to heated SVR steering wheel and more
Subtle enhancements to create the car I wanted from SVR nose cone, 400 series side skirts & customised 'design' rear bumper, to heated SVR steering wheel and more